New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Introduction
Data Last Updated: 2024-04-26 10:11:14
While all people living in the United States are affected by climate change, some communities and some populations are more vulnerable. Some populations and communities are subject to multiple stressors, making them disproportionately affected by changing climate conditions.
Vulnerability may vary by several factors:
- Location - such as living close to flood prone areas.
- Physical status - such as age, pre-existing health conditions and/or physical disability.
- Social, economic and underlying community conditions - such as the extent to which individuals have access to the services and results of long-standing societal factors (i.e., community underinvestment, racism, and poor representation in decision-making).
The United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention uses information from the U.S. Census to create an index (the Social Vulnerability Index) that ranks the social vulnerability of communities in the United States to hazardous events and disasters. The ability to recover from these events and disasters is much more difficult for socially vulnerable populations. The CDC index, which helps identify these populations, is at a census tract level and is comprised of 15 social factors that are organized according to four themes. These four themes are: Socioeconomic Status, Household Composition and Disability; Minority Status and Language; and Housing and Transportation.
Understanding where socially vulnerable populations are in relation to climate hazards, such as flooding, can help a community plan for impacts to those groups most vulnerable to such hazards.
There are 3 types of flood events:
- Riverine (or ‘fluvial’) flood events occur when intense rain events cause rivers and streams to overtop their banks.
- Flash (or ‘pluvial’) floods occur when intense rainfall causes a flood event that is not directly associated with a body of water. For example, flash flood events include floods in roadways from impaired stormwater management systems.
- Coastal flood events occur when sea-level rise, high tides, and storm surge combine to create flood events that range from nuisance high-tide floods to destructive storm tides from seawater.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) models flood hazards, both riverine (1) and coastal (3), as part of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) regulations and insurance requirements. FEMA does not model flash flood events (2) for their NFIP flood mapping.
In addition, coastal flood event exposures are assessed using a Total Water Level (TWL) approach for tidally influenced waters. The TWL approach combines sea-level rise and extreme water level information from NOAA to assess exposure to a variety of coastal flood events to complement FEMA flood mapping.
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Demographics
Total Population: 9,249,063
Total Housing Units: 3,756,340
Average State Household Income: $50,995
Total State Acres: 5,550,448
Total Urban Area (Acres): 1,569,530
- Urban Area Impacted by 2 Ft. TWL: 8,217 Acres (0.52%)
- Urban Area Impacted by 5 Ft. TWL: 54,139 Acres (3.45%)
- Urban Area Impacted by 7 Ft. TWL: 80,697 Acres (5.14%)
- Urban Area Impacted by 1% Annual Chance Flood: 106,435 Acres (6.78%)
- Urban Area Impacted by 0.2% Annual Chance Flood: 145,951 Acres (9.30%)
- Urban Area Impacted by Regulatory Floodway: 8,879 Acres (0.57%)
- Urban Area Impacted by Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard: 2,912 Acres (0.19%)
Impacted populations were calculated by determining the proportion of urban land use within the state impacted by inland and coastal flood hazards and applying that proportion to the total value of the indicator variable for that state.
Population and Household values were retrieved from The U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (2022 - ACS 5 Year) API
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Exposure Based on Socioeconomic Status
By Population (TWL)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Variable | Population Within Variable | % of Total Population | Population Exposed at 2ft TWL | Population Exposed at 5ft TWL | Population Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below Poverty | 879,179 | 9.51% | 4,603 | 30,326 | 45,203 |
| Unemployed | 307,824 | 3.33% | 1,611 | 10,618 | 15,827 |
| No High School Diploma | 601,741 | 6.51% | 3,150 | 20,756 | 30,938 |
By Population (FEMA Flood Zones)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Population | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Below Poverty | 879,179 | 9.51% | 59,619 | 81,755 | 4,973 | 1,631 |
| Unemployed | 307,824 | 3.33% | 20,874 | 28,624 | 1,741 | 571 |
| No High School Diploma | 601,741 | 6.51% | 40,806 | 55,956 | 3,404 | 1,117 |
The FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) dataset represents the current effective flood data across the United States. Areas in the National Flood Hazard Layer are:
- Floodway: The floodway is the channel of a stream plus any adjacent floodplain areas that must be kept free of encroachment so that the 1% annual chance flood can be carried without substantial increases in flood height.
- 1% Annual Chance Flood: The 1% annual flood (100-year flood), also known as the base flood, is the flood that has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year. The Special Flood Hazard Area is the area subject to flooding by the 1% annual chance flood. Areas of Special Flood Hazard include Zones A, AE, AH, AO, AR, A99, V, and VE. The Base Flood Elevation is that water-surface elevation of the 1% annual chance flood.
- 0.2% Annual Chance Flood: The 0.2% annual flood (500-year flood) is the flood that has a 0.2% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year.
- Areas of Undetermined Flood Hazard are areas with possible but undetermined flood hazards.
- FEMA Flood Zone exposure analyses are inclusive of lesser FEMA flood designations. The number exposed to 1% Annual Chance Flood includes those exposed in the Regulatory Floodway area in its analysis and the 0.2% Annual Chance Flood includes those exposed in the 1% Annual Change Flood and in the Regulatory Floodway.
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Exposure Based on Household Composition & Disability
By Population (TWL)
| Variable | Population Within Variable | % of Total Population | Population Exposed at 2ft TWL | Population Exposed at 5ft TWL | Population Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aged 65 or Over | 1,532,614 | 16.57% | 8,023 | 52,866 | 78,799 |
| Aged 17 or Younger | 2,015,561 | 21.79% | 10,552 | 69,525 | 103,629 |
| Civilian with a Disability | 966,039 | 10.44% | 5,057 | 33,323 | 49,668 |
By Population (FEMA Flood Zones)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Population | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Aged 65 or Over | 1,532,614 | 16.57% | 103,931 | 142,519 | 8,670 | 2,844 |
| Aged 17 or Younger | 2,015,561 | 21.79% | 136,681 | 187,428 | 11,402 | 3,740 |
| Civilian with a Disability | 966,039 | 10.44% | 65,510 | 89,833 | 5,465 | 1,792 |
By Households (TWL)
| Variable | Households Within Variable | % of Total Households | Households Exposed at 2ft TWL | Households Exposed at 5ft TWL | Households Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-Parent Households | 319,595 | 8.51% | 1,673 | 11,024 | 16,432 |
By Households (FEMA Flood Zones)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Households | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Single-Parent Households | 319,595 | 8.51% | 21,673 | 29,719 | 1,808 | 593 |
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Minority Status & Language
By Population (TWL)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Variable | Population Within Variable | % of Total Population | Population Exposed at 2ft TWL | Population Exposed at 5ft TWL | Population Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minority | 4,348,648 | 47.02% | 22,765 | 150,002 | 223,584 |
| Black or African American | 1,147,770 | 12.41% | 6,009 | 39,591 | 59,012 |
| AIAN1 | 7,905 | 0.09% | 41 | 273 | 406 |
| Asian | 905,752 | 9.79% | 4,742 | 31,243 | 46,569 |
| NHPI2 | 1,799 | 0.02% | 9 | 62 | 92 |
| Other | 63,188 | 0.68% | 331 | 2,180 | 3,249 |
| Two or More Races | 258,811 | 2.80% | 1,355 | 8,927 | 13,307 |
| Hispanic or Latino | 1,963,423 | 21.23% | 10,279 | 67,726 | 100,948 |
| Speak English “Less than Well” | 536,255 | 5.80% | 2,807 | 18,498 | 27,571 |
- 1 American Indian and Alaska Native
- 2 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
By Population (FEMA Flood Zones)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Population | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Minority | 4,348,648 | 47.02% | 294,895 | 404,383 | 24,600 | 8,069 |
| Black or African American | 1,147,770 | 12.41% | 77,834 | 106,732 | 6,493 | 2,130 |
| AIAN1 | 7,905 | 0.09% | 536 | 735 | 45 | 15 |
| Asian | 905,752 | 9.79% | 61,422 | 84,226 | 5,124 | 1,681 |
| NHPI2 | 1,799 | 0.02% | 122 | 167 | 10 | 3 |
| Other | 63,188 | 0.68% | 4,285 | 5,875 | 357 | 117 |
| Two or More Races | 258,811 | 2.80% | 17,551 | 24,067 | 1,464 | 480 |
| Hispanic or Latino | 1,963,423 | 21.23% | 133,146 | 182,580 | 11,107 | 3,643 |
| Speak English “Less than Well” | 536,255 | 5.80% | 36,366 | 49,867 | 3,034 | 995 |
- 1 American Indian and Alaska Native
- 2 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Housing & Transportation
By Households (TWL)
| Variable | Households Within Variable | % of Total Households | Households Exposed at 2ft TWL | Households Exposed at 5ft TWL | Households Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-Unit Structures1 | 625,486 | 16.65% | 3,274 | 21,576 | 32,159 |
| Mobile Homes | 34,816 | 0.93% | 182 | 1,201 | 1,790 |
| Crowding2 | 122,679 | 3.27% | 642 | 4,232 | 6,307 |
| No Vehicle | 387,802 | 10.32% | 2,030 | 13,377 | 19,939 |
By Households (FEMA Flood Zones)
| Households | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Multi-Unit Structures1 | 625,486 | 16.65% | 42,416 | 58,164 | 3,538 | 1,161 |
| Mobile Homes | 34,816 | 0.93% | 2,361 | 3,238 | 197 | 65 |
| Crowding2 | 122,679 | 3.27% | 8,319 | 11,408 | 694 | 228 |
| No Vehicle | 387,802 | 10.32% | 26,298 | 36,062 | 2,194 | 720 |
- 1 Multi-unit structures is defined here as 10 or more housing units in a structure.
- 2 Crowding is defined here as the number of households that have more people than rooms.
By Population (TWL)
| Variable | Population Within Variable | % of Total Population | Population Exposed at 2ft TWL | Population Exposed at 5ft TWL | Population Exposed at 7ft TWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group Quarters3 | 176,581 | 1.91% | 924 | 6,091 | 9,079 |
By Population (FEMA Flood Zones)
Represents quartile of this census tract to other census tracts in New Jersey
| Population | # Exposed in ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Within Variable | % of Total | 1% Annual Chance Flood | 0.2% Annual Chance Flood | Regulatory Floodway | Area of Undetermined Flood Hazard |
| Group Quarters3 | 176,581 | 1.91% | 11,975 | 16,420 | 999 | 328 |
- 3 Group Quarters is defined as persons who are in institutionalized group quarters (e.g., correctional institutions, nursing homes) and non-institutionalized group quarters (e.g., college dormitories, military quarters).
New Jersey: Vulnerable Populations Exposure Snapshot
Other Data Sets
In addition to the CDC SVI data, several other sets of data are available that can be used to reflect the social vulnerability of populations and communities:
Municipal Revitalization Index
Managed by the state Department of Community Affairs, the Municipal Revitalization Index (MRI) serves as the State’s official measure and ranking of municipal distress. This index is linked to economic, housing, and labor market data.
Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed
https://www.unitedforalice.org/new-jerseyALICE, an acronym for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed (ALICE), represents the growing number of individuals and families who are working, but are unable to afford the basic necessities of housing, child care, food, transportation, energy, and health care.
NJCounts Point-in-Time
The Federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) requires each state to conduct an assessment in January of each year to identify individuals residing in emergency shelters, transitional housing programs, safe havens and living on the streets or other locations not fit for dwelling. For NJ, this data is known as NJCounts.
Veterans
The U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey maintains data regarding demographic, social and economic data on veterans.
Housing Stock Age
Maintained by the United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey, the Housing Stock Age reflects the number of housing units built in the municipality prior to 1970. These homes may be more vulnerable and less resilient to changing climate conditions.
Landscan
Landscan provides a relative assessment of population density measured on a “people per cell” indicator basis. While this is not a measure of social vulnerability, it is provided to better understand where populations reside.
New Jersey: Built Infrastructure Assets Exposure Snapshot
Appendix: Background Information Regarding the Total Water Level Approach
This Appendix provides additional background on sea-level rise and the Total Water Level approach for assessing vulnerability of people, places, and assets in New Jersey to sea-level rise and sea-level rise combined with storm events.
Sea level Rise and Total Water Level: From 1911 to 2019, the mean sea-level rose 1.5 feet along the New Jersey coast, compared to a 0.6 feet rise in the global mean sea-level. New Jersey coastal areas are likely to experience sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1.1 feet between 2000 and 2030, and 0.9 to 2.1 feet between 2000 and 2050.
Figure A-1. Total Water Level reflecting combined inundation from future sea-level rise and flood events.
The number of days that New Jersey residents have experienced high-tide floods has also increased. From 2007 through 2016, there was an average of 8 high-tide flood events in Atlantic City each year. Based on the likely range of sea-level rise projections, Atlantic City will experience 17-75 days of expected high-tide flooding per year in 2030, and 45-255 days per year of expected high-tide flooding in 2050.
For the purposes of the exposure snapshots, different flood events are defined by total water levels (TWLs). TWLs present a height above high tide (See Figure A-1) that reflects the combined inundation from future sea-level rise and current flood events projected into the future from the year 2000 (Kopp et al., 2019).
Flood events1 can occur from surge created by a coastal storm (such as a hurricane or nor’easter) or from high tide each day as sea levels rise. For example, a 2-foot flood event along the New Jersey coast today can occur because of seasonal ‘high-tide flood’ conditions. By 2050, the same 2-foot flood events will become more frequent, occurring under normal high-tide conditions and inundating the affected areas2. While flood events resulting from daily tides will result in permanent inundation (i.e., the water will not recede), coastal storm induced flood events last only for the duration of a storm. A 7-foot flood event along the New Jersey coast that approximates potential hurricane storm tides today will become more likely in the future as coastal storm surge occurs on top of an increased baseline of sea-level to create higher storm tides. You can use our tools at (NJADAPT / NJFLOODMAPPER) to develop custom water levels for your region.
1Flood events referenced in this document as examples reflect ‘total water level’ heights above Year 2000 Mean Higher High Water, consistent with the sea-level baseline datum. See Kopp et al., 2019.
2See Kopp et al., 2019 Appendix B for region specific high-tide flood frequency projections.
Metadata / Sources - Flood Hazards
| Where to Get It | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Description | Map Service | Authoritative Source |
| FEMA Flood Zones | This FIRM data service allows users to view FIRMs for NJ. Counties were combined using the data downloaded from FEMA's Region II office. | FEMA Flood Zones Map Service | Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA) |
| Total Water Level (0 - 20 ft) | This dataset illustrates the scale of potential flooding, not the exact location, and does not account for erosion, subsidence, or future construction. Inundation is shown as it would appear during the highest high tides (excludes wind driven tides). The dataset should be used only as a screening-level tool for management decisions. As with all remotely sensed data, all features should be verified with a site visit. | Total Water Level Map Service | |
| Sea Level Rise (0 - 10 ft.) | This dataset was created as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office for Coastal Management's efforts to depict potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. The purpose of the mapping viewer is to provide coastal managers and scientists with a preliminary look at sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts. The purpose of this dataset is to show potential sea level rise inundation above current Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) for the area.This dataset illustrates the scale of potential flooding, not the exact location, and does not account for erosion, subsidence, or future construction. Inundation is shown as it would appear during the highest high tides (excludes wind driven tides) with the sea level rise amount. The dataset should be used only as a screening-level tool for management decisions. | Sea Level Rise Map Services | NOAA Office for Coastal Management |
| SLR Mapping Confidence (0 - 10 ft.) | Inundation Uncertainty Associated with Elevation Data and Tidal Datum Conversion for Sea Level Rise. The purpose of this dataset is to depict errors that are directly related to elevation and water height data. These errors can be used to begin defining areas with mapped inundation that do not have the same level of confidence as other areas. For a detailed explanation of mapping methods, see https://meridian.allenpress.com/jcr/article-abstract/30/3/548/202407/Mapping-and-Portraying-Inundation-Uncertainty-of?redirectedFrom=fulltext | SLR Mapping Confidence Map Services | NOAA Office for Coastal Management |
Metadata / Sources - Social Vulnerability
| Where to Get It | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Description | Map Service | Authoritative Source |
| Social Vulnerability Index - Overall | The Social Vulnerabiltiy Index combines percentile rankings of US Census American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 variables, for the state, at the census tract level and highlight the location of a community’s most vulnerable people. | Overall Social Vulnerability Map Service | Center for Disease Control -Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) |
| Social Vulnerability Index - Socio-Economic | The Social Vulnerabiltiy Index combines percentile rankings of US Census American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 variables, for the state, at the census tract level and highlight the location of a community’s most vulnerable people. Socioeconomic Status: Poverty, Unemployed, Per Capita Income, No High School Diploma. | SVI Socio-Economic Map Service | Center for Disease Control -Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) |
| Social Vulnerability Index - Household Composition | The Social Vulnerabiltiy Index combines percentile rankings of US Census American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 variables, for the state, at the census tract level and highlight the location of a community’s most vulnerable people. Household Composition/Disability: Aged 65 and Over, Aged 17 and Younger, Single-parent Household, Aged 5 and over with a Disability. | SVI Household Composition Map Service | Center for Disease Control -Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) |
| Social Vulnerability Index - Race / Ethnicity / Language | The Social Vulnerabiltiy Index combines percentile rankings of US Census American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 variables, for the state, at the census tract level and highlight the location of a community’s most vulnerable people. Race/Ethnicity/Language: Minority, English Language Ability. | SVI Race/Ethnicity/Language Map Service | Center for Disease Control -Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) |
| Social Vulnerability Index - Housing / Transportation | The Social Vulnerabiltiy Index combines percentile rankings of US Census American Community Survey (ACS) 2014-2018 variables, for the state, at the census tract level and highlight the location of a community’s most vulnerable people. Housing/Transportation: Multi-unit, Mobile Homes, Crowding, No Vehicle, Group Quarters. | SVI Housing/Transportation Map Service | Center for Disease Control -Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) |
| ALICE | ALICE represents working households unable to afford basic necessities. ALICE households have incomes above the Federal Poverty Level, but below the Household Survival Budget (HSB). The HSB calculates the actual cost of basic necessities - housing, child care, food, transportation, health care, technology (smartphones), and taxes - in New Jersey, adjusted for different counties and household types. | ALICE Map Service | United Way of Northern New Jersey |
| Homeless Population | The homeless population is calculated via a Point-in-Time (PIT) count of sheltered and unsheltered people experiencing homelessness on a single night in January. This dataset was gathered in January 2018. The count is based on Continuum of Care program geographies. Some Continuum of Care programs cover one county in New Jersey, while other programs cover multiple counties. Map boundaries have been dissolved to show Continuum of Care geographic coverage. | Homeless Population Map Service | U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development |
| Age of Housing Stock | Housing units built prior to the year 1970 | Housing Stock Map Service | U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey |
| MRI Distress Score | The Municipal Revitalization Index (MRI) ranks New Jersey’s municipalities according to eight separate indicators that measure diverse aspects of social, economic, physical, and fiscal conditions in each locality. These indicators are: Average annual population change; Children on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families; Unemployment rate; Equalized 3-year effective tax rate; Equalized valuation per capita; Per capita income; Substandard housing percentage; Pre-1960 housing percentage. The distress score ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 indicating maximum distress. | MRI Distress Score Map Service | New Jersey Department of Community Affairs |
| Veteran Population | Veteran status for the civilian population 18 years and older | Veteran Population Map Service | U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey |
| NJDEP Environmental Justice Overburdened Communities | In September 2020, New Jersey adopted a new law (N.J.S.A. 13:1D-157) that requires the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection to evaluate the contributions of certain commercial and industrial facilities to existing environmental and public health stressors in overburdened communities when reviewing certain permit applications. The law also directs the Department to publish a list of overburdened communities, at a census block level, based on the following criteria:
|
Overburdened Communities Feature Service | NJDEP Office of Environmental Justice |